Check out the ACE-HF propagation software - the latest is version 2.05. ACE-HF is propagation forecasting and modeling for Amateur Radio as well as for Shortwave radio Listening and general HF operation. This software is even used by the military and other clients around the world. This software is developed and maintained by the same engineers that keep VOACAP up-to-date. As a result, this software is the most accurate user interface integrated with VOACAP. CHECK IT OUT, TODAY. This software is the most accurate modeling software available, and is endorsed by NW7US. Read the details to find out why.
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Map, Above: Conditions in the D region of the ionosphere have a dramatic effect on high frequency (HF) communications and low frequency (LF) navigation systems. The global D Region Absorption Predictions (D-RAP) depicts the D region at high latitudes where it is driven by particles as well as low latitudes, where photons cause the prompt changes.
Note: At times, images may appear broken or missing, when SDO is working on the AIA/HMI instruments.
Planetary A-index (Ap): 11
| Planetary K-index (Kp): 3
Solar Wind: 554 km/s at 10.0 protons/cm3, Bz is -6.0 nT
(Aug 11, 2022 at 1628 UT)
X-ray Solar Flares:
6h hi [C1.2][0630Z 08/11] 24h hi [C1.2][0630Z 08/11]
What is the difference between the CB and Amateur Radio Services, in the USA? Here are some thoughts on the portrayal of the Amateur Radio Service by the Hit TV Series, NCIS, and a clarification of the difference between CB radio and ham radio.
(Skip to timecode 1:33 to bypass the introductory chat and talk about the headset microphone.)
Here is a video introduction to shortwave / HF amateur radio -- what is it that we amateur radio oprators listen to? If you have not yet been introduced to this world, this is a very basic introduction.
If you are using software utilities such as Ace-HF, that require a "smoothed" sunspot number
(Referred to as the SSN), or, the smoothed 10.7-cm Radio Flux Index,
use the following predicted values in this following table:
Predicted SMOOTHED Sunspot Number And Radio Flux Values
With Expected Ranges
At 0805 UTC, on 9 August 2011, a strong magnitude X6.9 X-ray flare -- the strongest yet in this current solar cycle (Cycle 24) -- erupted on the northwestern solar limb. Here is a HD Movie of the event:
Videos of Interest - Space Weather, Solar Dynamics Observatory, STEREO, and more... from the NW7US YouTube Channel. (Click on the small image to launch the video...)
Video: Voyager Finds Magnetic Foam at Solar Systems Edge
Video: Zoom View of Prominence Eruption and X-Ray Flare - M2.5 Magnitude - June 7 2011
Video: X-Ray Flare, Coronal Mass Ejection, Proton Storm - M2.5 Magnitude - June 7 2011 (Close-up of the video, above)
Video: Stunning Close-up View of M3 X-Ray Flare 24 February 2011
Video: On How NCIS TV Show Maligned Amateur Radio Service (Full UHD Version)
What's the difference between CB and amateur (ham) radio?
Video: June 2011 20-meter (14-Mhz) JT65A Coverage Map of NW7US Radio Signal
The NW7US Current Sunspot and Geophysical Activity Report
The observations, prognastications, and comments by NW7US
NW7US is Tomas David Hood, Propagation and Space Weather Columnist
for CQ Communications
More about Background X-rays
The hard X-ray energy present from the wavelengths of 1 to 8 Angstroms provide the most effective ionizing energy throughout all of the ionospheric layers in our atmosphere. The GEOS satellites measure these wavelengths and the resulting measurements are reported as the "background X-ray level" throughout the day. A daily average is reported, as well.
Just like X-ray flares, the background hard X-ray level is measured in watts per square meter (W/m2), reported using the categories, A, B, C, M, and X. These letters are multipliers; each class has a peak flux ten times greater than the preceding one. Within a class there is a linear scale from 1 to 9.
If one records the daily background X-ray levels for the course of a sunspot cycle, one would discover that the background X-ray levels remained at the A class level during the sunspot cycle minumum. During the rise and fall of a solar cycle, the background X-ray energy levels remained mostly in the B range. During peak solar cycle periods, the background energy reached the C and sometimes even M levels.
Armed with this information, can we discover any clues as to the current status of Sunspot Cycle 24? Below is a graph plotting the background hard X-ray energy reported by the GEOS satellites since the end of Sunspot Cycle 22. Clearly, we see a noticeable rise in Cycle 24 activity. We're seeing the energy mostly in the B level more often, supporting the view that Cycle 24 is alive and moving along toward an eventual sunspot cycle peak in several years.
Overall, the monthly average background 'hard' X-ray level is rising (as seen by the following plot), showing a change from deep solar cycle minimum. We are certainly in the rising phase of Sunspot Cycle 24. While it has been a slow up-tick over the last eighteen months, I expect to see a more rapid rise during mid to late 2011.
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Covering the period: 01 - 07 August 2022
Solar activity was at very low to low levels. C-class flares were observed on 02-03 Aug, 05 Aug, and 07 Aug. The largest was a C6/1b flare at 03/1708 UTC from Region 3068 (S15, L=210, class/area=Dso/210 on 05 Aug). The region was the most complex of the 12 numbered active regions over the past week. A Type II radio sweep (Est. 163 km/s) was associated with the event but no discernable ejecta was identified in subsequent coronagraph imagery. Two other Type II radio sweeps were observed during the week, one at 05/0657 UTC and another at 07/0226 UTC. Analysis of both events did not suggest Earth-directed ejecta was present.
Other activity included an approximate 30 degree filament eruption centered near N01E25 that began after 07/1749 UTC. Further coronagraph imagery is need to determine if there is a CME associated with the event.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal to moderate levels.
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storm levels. Unsettled levels over 01-03 Aug and 05 Aug appear to be associated with influence from negative polarity CH HSSs. G2 conditions were reached at the end of the day on 07 Aug and were associated with the onset of influence from a SSBC followed by a positive polarity CH HSS. Total magnetic field strength reached as high as 14 nT at 07/2230 UTC. The Bz component was mostly oriented southward over 07 Aug, reaching as far south as -13 nT at 07/2227 UTC. Solar wind speeds increased over 07 Aug from ~420 km/s to occasionally over 600 km/s after 07/2230 UTC.
Monthly and smoothed sunspot number - The monthly mean sunspot number (blue) and 13-month smoothed monthly sunspot number (red) for the last five cycles. You can see that this current cycle, Cycle 24, is a weak cycle, compared to the last few.
(Click to see actual size)
Daily and monthly sunspot number (last 13 years)
Daily sunspot number (yellow), monthly mean sunspot number (blue), smoothed monthly sunspot number (red) for the last 13 years and 12-month ahead predictions of the monthly smoothed sunspot number:
SC (red dots) : prediction method based on an interpolation of Waldmeier's standard curves; It is only based on the sunspot number series.
CM (red dashes) : method (from K. Denkmayr and P. Cugnon) combining a regression technique applied to the sunspot number series with the aa geomagnetic index used as a precursor (improved predictions during the minimum phase between solar cycles).
(Click to see actual size)
What is 'Space Weather'? Click on these two information slides to view them in full size:
Active sunspot regions, and plages, identified by SIDC
What is coming
Real Time Solor Wind and Aurora:
On 2022 Aug 11 1638Z: Bz: -5.5 nT
Bx: 2.4 nT | By: 2.5 nT | Total: 6.5 nT
Most recent satellite polar pass:
Centered on // : UTC Aurora Activity Level was at UTC
visit noaa for latest.
This is a video of the simulation from May 27-28, 2011, showing
the Geomagnetic disturbance caused by the solar wind
Outlook: (valid from 1230UT, 11 Aug 2022 until 13 Aug 2022)
11 Aug 2022 10.7-cm Flux: 109 / Ap: 012
12 Aug 2022 10.7-cm Flux: 109 / Ap: 012
13 Aug 2022 10.7-cm Flux: 109 / Ap: 007
Solar Flares: Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares) Geo-Disturbance: Quiet (A<20 and K<4) Solar Proton Event: Quiet
Comment from the SIDC (RWC Belgium): Solar flaring activity was low and consisted of just two C1 flares this morning from the bipolar region that was numbered yesterday (Catania sunspot group 9, NOAA active region 3077). The region seemed to experience some opposite polarity flux emergence near the trailing spots. The other regions on disc were all stable or decaying, with the exception of some flux emergence immediately to the north of the unipolar Catania sunspot group 8 (NOAA active region 3076), late in the period. Flaring at C level is not very likely but remains possible over the next days.
Three Day Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
(as of 2200Z on 07 Dec 2014)
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (08 Dec, 09 Dec, 10 Dec).
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (08 Dec), quiet to active levels on day two (09 Dec) and quiet levels on day three (10 Dec).
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
08 August - 03 September 2022
Solar activity is expected to be low or very low during the outlook period. There are currently no significantly complex regions on the visible disk that suggest elevated potential of R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach moderate or high levels. High levels are anticipated over 09-16 Aug and 18-14 Aug. Elevated levels are in response to influence from multiple, recurrent CH HSSs. The remainder of the outlook period is expected to reach moderate levels.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to range from quiet to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels. G1 conditions are likely on 08 Aug and 17 Aug; active conditions are likely on 09 Aug, 18-19 Aug, 27 Aug, and 03 Sep; unsettled conditions are likely on 10-11 Aug, 20 Aug, and 28-30 Aug. Elevated levels of geomagnetic activity are anticipated in response to multiple, recurrent, CH HSSs. The remainder of the outlook period is expected to be at quiet levels.
Data and images courtesy of IPS Australia, NOAA, NASA, SWPC, SIDC
Layout, analysis, commentary, and certain forecasts and content is Copyright, 2021, Tomas David Hood (NW7US), all rights reserved.
No part, except for the space weather 'banners', may be copied without express permission.