Check out the ACE-HF propagation software - the latest is version 2.05. ACE-HF is propagation forecasting and modeling for Amateur Radio as well as for Shortwave radio Listening and general HF operation. This software is even used by the military and other clients around the world. This software is developed and maintained by the same engineers that keep VOACAP up-to-date. As a result, this software is the most accurate user interface integrated with VOACAP. CHECK IT OUT, TODAY. This software is the most accurate modeling software available, and is endorsed by NW7US. Read the details to find out why.
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Map, Above: Conditions in the D region of the ionosphere have a dramatic effect on high frequency (HF) communications and low frequency (LF) navigation systems. The global D Region Absorption Predictions (D-RAP) depicts the D region at high latitudes where it is driven by particles as well as low latitudes, where photons cause the prompt changes.
Note: At times, images may appear broken or missing, when SDO is working on the AIA/HMI instruments.
Planetary A-index (Ap): 11
| Planetary K-index (Kp): 2
Solar Wind: 390 km/s at 6.0 protons/cm3, Bz is -1.0 nT
(Feb 27, 2021 at 1132 UT)
X-ray Solar Flares:
6h hi [B9.5][0702Z 02/26] 24h hi [B9.5][0702Z 02/26]
What is the difference between the CB and Amateur Radio Services, in the USA? Here are some thoughts on the portrayal of the Amateur Radio Service by the Hit TV Series, NCIS, and a clarification of the difference between CB radio and ham radio.
(Skip to timecode 1:33 to bypass the introductory chat and talk about the headset microphone.)
Here is a video introduction to shortwave / HF amateur radio -- what is it that we amateur radio oprators listen to? If you have not yet been introduced to this world, this is a very basic introduction.
If you are using software utilities such as Ace-HF, that require a "smoothed" sunspot number
(Referred to as the SSN), or, the smoothed 10.7-cm Radio Flux Index,
use the following predicted values in this following table:
Predicted SMOOTHED Sunspot Number And Radio Flux Values
With Expected Ranges
At 0805 UTC, on 9 August 2011, a strong magnitude X6.9 X-ray flare -- the strongest yet in this current solar cycle (Cycle 24) -- erupted on the northwestern solar limb. Here is a HD Movie of the event:
Videos of Interest - Space Weather, Solar Dynamics Observatory, STEREO, and more... from the NW7US YouTube Channel. (Click on the small image to launch the video...)
Video: Voyager Finds Magnetic Foam at Solar Systems Edge
Video: Zoom View of Prominence Eruption and X-Ray Flare - M2.5 Magnitude - June 7 2011
Video: X-Ray Flare, Coronal Mass Ejection, Proton Storm - M2.5 Magnitude - June 7 2011 (Close-up of the video, above)
Video: Stunning Close-up View of M3 X-Ray Flare 24 February 2011
Video: On How NCIS TV Show Maligned Amateur Radio Service (Full UHD Version)
What's the difference between CB and amateur (ham) radio?
Video: June 2011 20-meter (14-Mhz) JT65A Coverage Map of NW7US Radio Signal
The NW7US Current Sunspot and Geophysical Activity Report
The observations, prognastications, and comments by NW7US
NW7US is Tomas David Hood, Propagation and Space Weather Columnist
for CQ Communications
More about Background X-rays
The hard X-ray energy present from the wavelengths of 1 to 8 Angstroms provide the most effective ionizing energy throughout all of the ionospheric layers in our atmosphere. The GEOS satellites measure these wavelengths and the resulting measurements are reported as the "background X-ray level" throughout the day. A daily average is reported, as well.
Just like X-ray flares, the background hard X-ray level is measured in watts per square meter (W/m2), reported using the categories, A, B, C, M, and X. These letters are multipliers; each class has a peak flux ten times greater than the preceding one. Within a class there is a linear scale from 1 to 9.
If one records the daily background X-ray levels for the course of a sunspot cycle, one would discover that the background X-ray levels remained at the A class level during the sunspot cycle minumum. During the rise and fall of a solar cycle, the background X-ray energy levels remained mostly in the B range. During peak solar cycle periods, the background energy reached the C and sometimes even M levels.
Armed with this information, can we discover any clues as to the current status of Sunspot Cycle 24? Below is a graph plotting the background hard X-ray energy reported by the GEOS satellites since the end of Sunspot Cycle 22. Clearly, we see a noticeable rise in Cycle 24 activity. We're seeing the energy mostly in the B level more often, supporting the view that Cycle 24 is alive and moving along toward an eventual sunspot cycle peak in several years.
Overall, the monthly average background 'hard' X-ray level is rising (as seen by the following plot), showing a change from deep solar cycle minimum. We are certainly in the rising phase of Sunspot Cycle 24. While it has been a slow up-tick over the last eighteen months, I expect to see a more rapid rise during mid to late 2011.
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Covering the period: 15 - 21 February 2021
Solar activity was very low. Region 2803 (N21, Lo=280, class/area Axx/30 on 19 Feb) produced a B1 flare on 19/0901 UTC, the largest of the period. Region 2802 (N19, Lo=33, class/area Bxo/15 on 18 Feb) decayed to plage on 19 Feb.
A filament eruption was observed near mid-day on 20 Feb in the SE quadrant of the visible disk. A subsequent partial-halo CME signature followed the eruption, first observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery beginning at 20/1200 UTC. Analysis and modeling of the event suggested the bulk of the plasma headed downstream of Earth; however, a glancing blow from the periphery of the CME is likely on 23-24 Feb. No other Earth-directed CMEs were identified in available coronagraph imagery.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal to high levels. Normal to moderate levels were observed from 15-20 Feb. Activity from a negative polarity CH HSS increased peak electron flux to high levels on 21 Feb.
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels. Active levels were reached on 16 Feb and 19-21 Feb. Unsettled levels were reached on 15 Feb and 17-18 Feb. All periods of elevated geomagnetic activity was in response to multiple, negative polarity CH HSSs.
Monthly and smoothed sunspot number - The monthly mean sunspot number (blue) and 13-month smoothed monthly sunspot number (red) for the last five cycles. You can see that this current cycle, Cycle 24, is a weak cycle, compared to the last few.
(Click to see actual size)
Daily and monthly sunspot number (last 13 years)
Daily sunspot number (yellow), monthly mean sunspot number (blue), smoothed monthly sunspot number (red) for the last 13 years and 12-month ahead predictions of the monthly smoothed sunspot number:
SC (red dots) : prediction method based on an interpolation of Waldmeier's standard curves; It is only based on the sunspot number series.
CM (red dashes) : method (from K. Denkmayr and P. Cugnon) combining a regression technique applied to the sunspot number series with the aa geomagnetic index used as a precursor (improved predictions during the minimum phase between solar cycles).
(Click to see actual size)
What is 'Space Weather'? Click on these two information slides to view them in full size:
Active sunspot regions, and plages, identified by SIDC
What is coming
Real Time Solor Wind and Aurora:
On 2021 Feb 27 1141Z: Bz: -0.7 nT
Bx: -2.2 nT | By: 0.7 nT | Total: 2.4 nT
Most recent satellite polar pass:
Centered on // : UTC Aurora Activity Level was at UTC
visit noaa for latest.
This is a video of the simulation from May 27-28, 2011, showing
the Geomagnetic disturbance caused by the solar wind
Outlook: (valid from 1230UT, 26 Feb 2021 until 28 Feb 2021)
26 Feb 2021 10.7-cm Flux: 080 / Ap: 013
27 Feb 2021 10.7-cm Flux: 080 / Ap: 005
28 Feb 2021 10.7-cm Flux: 080 / Ap: 004
Solar Flares: Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares) Geo-Disturbance: Quiet (A<20 and K<4) Solar Proton Event: Quiet
Comment from the SIDC (RWC Belgium): The solar activity has been mostly quiet over the past 24 hours, with the most notable event being a B9.5 class flare from region Catania 75/NOAA 12805 on Feb 26 07:02UT. The solar flaring activity is expected to remain at low levels, with a small chance of C-class flaring for the next 24 hours.
Three Day Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
(as of 2200Z on 07 Dec 2014)
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (08 Dec, 09 Dec, 10 Dec).
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (08 Dec), quiet to active levels on day two (09 Dec) and quiet levels on day three (10 Dec).
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
22 February - 20 March 2021
Solar activity is expected to be very low throughout the outlook period.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to range from normal to high levels. High levels are expected on 22-26 Feb, 02-04 Mar and 19-20 Mar due to influence from multiple, recurrent CH HSSs. Normal to moderate levels expected for the remainder of the outlook period.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels. G1 (Minor) storm conditions are likely on 01 Mar and 18-19 Mar due to CH HSS influence. Active conditions are likely 23-24 Feb due to anticipated onset of a CME from 20 Feb. Active conditions due to CH HSS influence are likely on 22 Feb, 02 Mar, 06 Mar, 12-13 Mar, 15 Mar and 20 Mar. Unsettled conditions are likely on 25 Feb, 03 Mar and 16 Mar. The remainder of the outlook period is expected to be at quiet levels.
Data and images courtesy of IPS Australia, NOAA, NASA, SWPC, SIDC
Layout, analysis, commentary, and certain forecasts and content is Copyright, 2018, Tomas David Hood (NW7US), all rights reserved.
No part, except for the space weather 'banners', may be copied without express permission.