Check out the ACE-HF propagation software - the latest is version 2.05. ACE-HF is propagation forecasting and modeling for Amateur Radio as well as for Shortwave radio Listening and general HF operation. This software is even used by the military and other clients around the world. This software is developed and maintained by the same engineers that keep VOACAP up-to-date. As a result, this software is the most accurate user interface integrated with VOACAP. CHECK IT OUT, TODAY. This software is the most accurate modeling software available, and is endorsed by NW7US. Read the details to find out why.
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Map, Above: Conditions in the D region of the ionosphere have a dramatic effect on high frequency (HF) communications and low frequency (LF) navigation systems. The global D Region Absorption Predictions (D-RAP) depicts the D region at high latitudes where it is driven by particles as well as low latitudes, where photons cause the prompt changes.
Note: At times, images may appear broken or missing, when SDO is working on the AIA/HMI instruments.
Planetary A-index (Ap): 16
| Planetary K-index (Kp):
Solar Wind: 449 km/s at 8.0 protons/cm3, Bz is -5.0 nT
(Nov 27, 2022 at 1401 UT)
X-ray Solar Flares:
6h hi [B9.0][0203Z 11/26] 24h hi [B9.0][0203Z 11/26]
What is the difference between the CB and Amateur Radio Services, in the USA? Here are some thoughts on the portrayal of the Amateur Radio Service by the Hit TV Series, NCIS, and a clarification of the difference between CB radio and ham radio.
(Skip to timecode 1:33 to bypass the introductory chat and talk about the headset microphone.)
Here is a video introduction to shortwave / HF amateur radio -- what is it that we amateur radio oprators listen to? If you have not yet been introduced to this world, this is a very basic introduction.
If you are using software utilities such as Ace-HF, that require a "smoothed" sunspot number
(Referred to as the SSN), or, the smoothed 10.7-cm Radio Flux Index,
use the following predicted values in this following table:
Predicted SMOOTHED Sunspot Number And Radio Flux Values
With Expected Ranges
At 0805 UTC, on 9 August 2011, a strong magnitude X6.9 X-ray flare -- the strongest yet in this current solar cycle (Cycle 24) -- erupted on the northwestern solar limb. Here is a HD Movie of the event:
Videos of Interest - Space Weather, Solar Dynamics Observatory, STEREO, and more... from the NW7US YouTube Channel. (Click on the small image to launch the video...)
Video: Voyager Finds Magnetic Foam at Solar Systems Edge
Video: Zoom View of Prominence Eruption and X-Ray Flare - M2.5 Magnitude - June 7 2011
Video: X-Ray Flare, Coronal Mass Ejection, Proton Storm - M2.5 Magnitude - June 7 2011 (Close-up of the video, above)
Video: Stunning Close-up View of M3 X-Ray Flare 24 February 2011
Video: On How NCIS TV Show Maligned Amateur Radio Service (Full UHD Version)
What's the difference between CB and amateur (ham) radio?
Video: June 2011 20-meter (14-Mhz) JT65A Coverage Map of NW7US Radio Signal
The NW7US Current Sunspot and Geophysical Activity Report
The observations, prognastications, and comments by NW7US
NW7US is Tomas David Hood, Propagation and Space Weather Columnist
for CQ Communications
More about Background X-rays
The hard X-ray energy present from the wavelengths of 1 to 8 Angstroms provide the most effective ionizing energy throughout all of the ionospheric layers in our atmosphere. The GEOS satellites measure these wavelengths and the resulting measurements are reported as the "background X-ray level" throughout the day. A daily average is reported, as well.
Just like X-ray flares, the background hard X-ray level is measured in watts per square meter (W/m2), reported using the categories, A, B, C, M, and X. These letters are multipliers; each class has a peak flux ten times greater than the preceding one. Within a class there is a linear scale from 1 to 9.
If one records the daily background X-ray levels for the course of a sunspot cycle, one would discover that the background X-ray levels remained at the A class level during the sunspot cycle minumum. During the rise and fall of a solar cycle, the background X-ray energy levels remained mostly in the B range. During peak solar cycle periods, the background energy reached the C and sometimes even M levels.
Armed with this information, can we discover any clues as to the current status of Sunspot Cycle 24? Below is a graph plotting the background hard X-ray energy reported by the GEOS satellites since the end of Sunspot Cycle 22. Clearly, we see a noticeable rise in Cycle 24 activity. We're seeing the energy mostly in the B level more often, supporting the view that Cycle 24 is alive and moving along toward an eventual sunspot cycle peak in several years.
Overall, the monthly average background 'hard' X-ray level is rising (as seen by the following plot), showing a change from deep solar cycle minimum. We are certainly in the rising phase of Sunspot Cycle 24. While it has been a slow up-tick over the last eighteen months, I expect to see a more rapid rise during mid to late 2011.
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Covering the period: 14 - 20 November 2022
Solar activity was at low to moderate levels. Moderate levels were observed on 15 and 19 Nov. On 15 Nov, Region 3140 (N25, L= 326, class/area Ekc/550 on 14 Nov) produced an M1/1n at 15/0251 UTC. On 19 Nov, Region 3150 (N22, L=253, class/area Dso/140 on 19 Nov) produced an M1 flare at 19/1256 UTC along with associated Type II (930 km/s) and IV radio sweeps as well as a non-Earth-directed CME observed beginning at 19/1325 UTC in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery. Other activity included a slow, narrow CME from a filament eruption centered near S32W36 around 16/1100 UTC with a subsequent CME off the SW limb at 16/1408 UTC in C2 imagery. Another filament eruption occurred beginning at 19/0724 UTC centered near N45E35 and created a CME off the NNW limb at 19/0948 UTC in C2 imagery. Modelling of both CMEs indicated a possible glancing blow on 21 and 22 Nov, respectively.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal to moderate levels throughout the period.
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to unsettled levels. Solar wind parameters were in decline from 14-15 Nov under waning CH HSS influence. Mostly nominal conditions were observed through late on 18 Nov. At approximately 18/1615-19/2200 UTC, total field increased to a maximum of 12 nT while solar wind speed remained nominal. This was likely weak transient influence. Total field increased once again beginning at 20/0800 UTC, reaching near 12 nT with a subsequent rise in solar wind speed from 330-410 km/s suggesting the onset of a connection to negative polarity CH HSS influence. Quiet conditions were observed on 14-17 Nov and again on 19 Nov. Quiet to unsettled levels occurred on 18 and 20 Nov.
Monthly and smoothed sunspot number - The monthly mean sunspot number (blue) and 13-month smoothed monthly sunspot number (red) for the last five cycles. You can see that this current cycle, Cycle 24, is a weak cycle, compared to the last few.
(Click to see actual size)
Daily and monthly sunspot number (last 13 years)
Daily sunspot number (yellow), monthly mean sunspot number (blue), smoothed monthly sunspot number (red) for the last 13 years and 12-month ahead predictions of the monthly smoothed sunspot number:
SC (red dots) : prediction method based on an interpolation of Waldmeier's standard curves; It is only based on the sunspot number series.
CM (red dashes) : method (from K. Denkmayr and P. Cugnon) combining a regression technique applied to the sunspot number series with the aa geomagnetic index used as a precursor (improved predictions during the minimum phase between solar cycles).
(Click to see actual size)
What is 'Space Weather'? Click on these two information slides to view them in full size:
Active sunspot regions, and plages, identified by SIDC
What is coming
Real Time Solor Wind and Aurora:
On 2022 Nov 27 1415Z: Bz: -4.4 nT
Bx: -4.5 nT | By: 4.6 nT | Total: 7.8 nT
Most recent satellite polar pass:
Centered on // : UTC Aurora Activity Level was at UTC
visit noaa for latest.
This is a video of the simulation from May 27-28, 2011, showing
the Geomagnetic disturbance caused by the solar wind
Outlook: (valid from 1230UT, 26 Nov 2022 until 28 Nov 2022)
26 Nov 2022 10.7-cm Flux: 107 / Ap: 015
27 Nov 2022 10.7-cm Flux: 105 / Ap: 014
28 Nov 2022 10.7-cm Flux: 104 / Ap: 008
Solar Flares: Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares) Geo-Disturbance: Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4) Solar Proton Event: Quiet
Comment from the SIDC (RWC Belgium): There are presently five active regions observed on the visible side of the Sun and all of them have simple configuration of their photospheric magnetic field (alpha and beta). Accordingly, during last 24 hours only B-class flares were reported. We expect such a low level of flaring activity to continue in the coming hours. During last 24 hours there were no potentially Earth-directed CMEs detected in the coronagraph observations.
Three Day Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
(as of 2200Z on 07 Dec 2014)
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (08 Dec, 09 Dec, 10 Dec).
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (08 Dec), quiet to active levels on day two (09 Dec) and quiet levels on day three (10 Dec).
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
21 November - 17 December 2022
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low on 21-28 Nov and on 13-17 Dec. A chance for M-class flares (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) exists on 29 Nov-12 Dec with the return of old Regions 3140 (N25, L=326) and 3141 (N14, L=318).
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on 28 Nov-05 Dec due to recurrent CH HSS influence.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on 21 Nov-03 Dec, 08-09 Dec, and again on 17 Dec with G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels likely on 21 Nov due to recurrent CH HSS activity. There is a possibility of a glancing blow from the 16 and 19 Nov CMEs contributing to geomagnetic field response on 21 and 22 Nov.
Data and images courtesy of IPS Australia, NOAA, NASA, SWPC, SIDC
Layout, analysis, commentary, and certain forecasts and content is Copyright, 2022, Tomas David Hood (NW7US), all rights reserved.
No part, except for the space weather 'banners', may be copied without express permission.